New technologies often enable surprising, unexpected innovations and fundamental changes in traditional industries.
• The Vinyl LP was replaced with the CD in the 1980’s, which are in the process of disappearing into ”MP-3” players. Thus physical shelves of music become bits in a pocket playback device.
• The sales and distribution channels for music, books, and movies moves to internet based channels.
• Film based photography disappears from mainstream photography in the past ten years.
• Radio and TV networks monopoly on newsgather gets shortcut but Mobile Phone cameras coupled to YouTube worldwide.
• GPS technology replaces maps and not only aids in navigation but gives growth to a totally new area of ”location based services”.
Fundamentally, these changes have been made possible by the constant shrinking in size and cost of semi-conductors, which see a factor 1000 price/performance improvement every ten years. (Moore’s Law).
When looking to the future, it is important to identify key technologies which create a platform for new applications and revolutionary shifts in business models.